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Affirm (AFRM)

  • Writer: Abacus Research
    Abacus Research
  • Mar 12, 2025
  • 1 min read

Share gainer with a proven business model? Or consumer stock right in front of a credit cycle?

Yes, there is the potential for a significant top down impact on all credit plays, however at $46 AFRM is pricing in numbers ~30% below the street by our ests.


We like the long term positioning as we are convinced of the structural element of growth and BNPL taking share.

  • The business model is proven, with BNPL and AI based online lenders showing amazing growth in the 30%-100% range.

  • The share gaining aspect of BNPL and its oligopoly market structure is highly attractive and will take years, which is why we would be interested in the stock.


Unless the macro implodes, downside on AFRM seems low to us.


Potential Upside:     $64 (+39%)

Sensible Downside: $40(-14%)


 
 
 

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