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RYAN / Insurance Cycle

  • Writer: Abacus Research
    Abacus Research
  • 16 hours ago
  • 1 min read

Ryan (RYAN) is a typical hard market beneficiary, that is going through an organic growth reset. Are we there yet in terms of the reset- probably not. Timing the bottom of a cyclical market is hard. No surprise there.

  • The property insurance cycle has turned soft, that is well known, but it looks like it will take only one large Cat loss to return to a hard market.

  • Near term, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. However, over the long-term insurance is a good business and E&S share gains look durable to us, plus RYAN is consolidating the sector. 

  • Ryan looks compelling to us. Cost cutting through the downturn, with structural reasons to grow faster whenever the next upturn arrives.

  • We would like to buy it in the low 30s if possible, there are no catalysts and any bottoming in the insurance market is likely to be slow, RYAN is a bet on the length and depth of the down cycle in property insurance.



Upside: $60-$75

Downside: $33


 
 
 

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