top of page
Search
  • Writer's pictureAbacus Research

Autodesk: A changed company in a changing industry

Autodesk is a changed company, with better long term growth drivers and pricing power than the market appreciates.

  • Average Revenue Per Subscriber (ARPS) will grow very quickly as discounting rolls off. Currently ADSK is receiving ~50% of list price. 

  • Operating leverage has been hidden due to shift to subscription. FY19 is the inflection year.

The long term drivers are very attractive:

  • Although the automation of the construction industry trend has been around for at least a decade, the adoption of technology in construction is gaining wide acceptance. 

  • BIM is at an inflection point due to better collaboration workflow enabled by cloud. 

  • Autodesk has the potential to become one of the dominant platforms in the construction vertical. 


Potential Upside: $184 (+40%): DCF based, fully expensing SBC. Estimate $2bn in FCF in 2022.

Sensible Downside: $107 (-18%): based on low growth scenario.


Recent Posts

See All

Fortive: potential14% IRR

Fortive is a high quality business with an asset light model, high margins, high incremental margins and consistent FCF generation that is reinvested in M&A. Recent guidance for slow organic growth fo

Vertiv (VRT) - Datacentre play on AI theme

Vertiv is a leader in critical infrastructure for datacentres and a clear beneficiary of AI driven growth. AI tailwind for datacentres is only starting. To date, Vertiv has seen little to no impact fr

Palantir (PLTR)

The advent of LLM’s have changed Palantir's relationships with institutions – the commercial market is now open to what Palantir is selling. This is a significant change from one year ago. AIP bootcam

留言


bottom of page