Insulet: New product cycle

Insulet is a ~$17b market cap insulin pump leader.

1. The primary bet is the Omnipod 5 driven product cycle:The approvals / product launches are mostly done, it is now just a question of execution and market demand.

2. Insulet’s has seen significant devaluation on the back of GLP-1s.

   • The secondary bet is that the ‘negative’ impact of GLP-1s is negligible over the next decade. If this is proven, the multiple should expand

   • Note that GLP1s have no impact on type 1 diabetes, insulet’s core customer.

In our upside scenario we see a path to $3.6bn in 2027 revenues (2023-27 CAGR of 21%) and an EPS of $6.50 (25% CAGR), with EPS ~10% above consensus.

Potential Upside:     $320 (+37%)

Sensible Downside: $195(-16%)

Link to research