Shift4 is a founder led payments company. In a highly dynamic industry, Shift4 has shown its ability to outgrow peers and increase market share.
We think that the market has got FOUR wrong, trading it at 12xEV/EBITDA (2025), which in our opinion should be >16x, for a 20%+ EBITDA growth company.
We think the organic growth of the business is sustainable at 15%+.
Plus, there is a sustainable M&A model where Shift4 can acquire at 4x EBITDA post synergies.
In our opinion, Shift4 has an opportunity large enough to grow gross profit at a 20-30% CAGR over the next three years.
This will be a mix of 10-15% organic and 10-15% acquisitions.
EBITDA growth should be inline to slightly higher, given inherent operating leverage in the business.
Potential Upside: $164 (+75%)
Sensible Downside: $92 (i.e. limited downside)
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