Shift4: 20% sustainable growth, 12x EV/EBIDA

Shift4 is a founder led payments company. In a highly dynamic industry, Shift4 has shown its ability to outgrow peers and increase market share.

We think that the market has got FOUR wrong, trading it at 12xEV/EBITDA (2025), which in our opinion should be >16x, for a 20%+ EBITDA growth company.

• We think the organic growth of the business is sustainable at 15%+.

• Plus, there is a sustainable M&A model where Shift4 can acquire at 4x EBITDA post synergies.

In our opinion, Shift4 has an opportunity large enough to grow gross profit at a 20-30% CAGR over the next three years.

• This will be a mix of 10-15% organic and 10-15% acquisitions.

• EBITDA growth should be inline to slightly higher, given inherent operating leverage in the business.

Potential Upside:     $164 (+75%)

Sensible Downside: $92 (i.e. limited downside)

Link to Research