Tesla vs. Uber
Robotaxi: Austin is the key hub to watch right now and has become the central battleground for autonomous ride-hailing.
There is a very rapid ramp in Cybercabs happening in Austin right now:
Fleet as of Today:
Model Y: 420
Cybercab: 319 (TxMCCS data, which is updated often) Commercial operators must register each vehicle. (latest data: 9 Oct 2026)
If we assume that Cybercab is a success in Austin, how long does it take to replicate and open other markets?
Without entering strict regulatory states Tesla can access an addressable population of about 45 to 50 million people across Sun Belt metro areas.
This is the big problem for UBER over the next two to three years. Tesla can ramp production and flood those markets with Cybercabs, proving its business model. The market will extrapolate the disruption globally.
Uber has a 9% FCF yield (on 2027 street estimates) and is growing revenue at ~15% and EPS at ~20%. At a minimum it is interesting.
Uber is down on one main fear: self-driving cars going D2C and cut Uber out of the loop.
There is a clear risk that UBER cannot adapt to robotaxis and is essentially replaced by a cheaper system.
If Tesla and/or Waymo go it alone, and become the dominant brands, then UBER is most likely in trouble. (Note: we think that Tesla has already won)
The only way that we can see Uber being a long-term winner is if it shifts from being a capital light business to capital heavy. If Uber is the key buyer of Cybercabs and disrupts its own drivers (who are ~75% of costs) in key geographies it might have a chance of retaining customer ownership.
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