Square: Cash App and Cash Card are worth how much?

After a period of rapid new product innovation Square is in the process of maturing as a company. Cash App has come from nowhere two years ago to generating 20% of total gross profit in Q2’19. It is growing at >100% and monetising better than Venmo, its nearest competitor. 

We think the main bet in Square is how successful Cash App, and more specifically Cash Card becomes. We expect Cash Card momentum to continue, and believe Cash App could be ~47% of Square’s gross profit over the next 5 years.

Even if you don't care about Square as an investment it is worth understanding Cash App and P2P's impact on the current financial system as it disrupts many players. 

Potential Upside: $94 (+50%)

Sensible Downside: $46 (-24%) 

Link to research